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Interpreting the Pandemic for Decision Making and Action

Emergency Planning

As the Covid-19 pandemic progresses, causing distributed crises in one country after another, it is like watching all I have taught about for the last four decades flash past in a sort of speeded-up film. My primary message was that a pandemic is as much a socio-economic and behavioural problem as a medical and epidemiological one.

Pandemic 130
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A Proposed Strategy to Advocate for Improved Civil Protection in the United Kingdom

Emergency Planning

The lessons of the Covid-19 pandemic, alas largely negative, show that a good civilian system designed to protect the public against major hazards and threats can save thousands of lives and billions in losses and wasted expenditure. Non-seasonal influenza retains the potential to cause a pandemic on the level of that of 1918-1920.

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Interpreting Covid-19 as a Disaster

Emergency Planning

Image: US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases In terms of its scope, Covid-19 is like no other disaster that has occurred in the last 100 years, since, in fact, the influenza pandemic of 1918-1920 killed more people than both world wars combined, and contributed to the end of the First World War.

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Covid-19: Elements of a Scenario

Emergency Planning

It is now more than ten years since there was a general push to induce countries to plan for pandemics (WHO 2005). About the same time, 2007, Dr Michael Leavitt of the US Department of Health and Human Services wrote: "We don't know when a pandemic will arrive. Major epidemics and pandemics (what is the difference?)

Pandemic 130
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Foresight

Emergency Planning

The cascade is a result of the progression of a shock through different kinds of vulnerability. Everyday risk factors are different when floods, transportation crashes, landslides, toxic spills, structural collapses occur against a background of asymmetric warfare, armed insurgency, fighting or rampant terrorism.

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Towards a Taxonomy of Disasters

Emergency Planning

While not independent of the magnitude of physical forces involved, it is not linearly related to them because it depends on the nature and size of the vulnerabilities that the physical forces act upon. Included are toxic spills, transportation crashes and the effects of human error. (c) Disaster is fundamentally a social phenomenon.

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Common Misconceptions about Disaster

Emergency Planning

As the transport and operation of field hospitals tends to be expensive and logistically challenging, in some cases it may be more efficient to attempt to restore or augment existing hospitals in the area, even if they are significantly damaged. In addition, technology is a potential source of vulnerability as well as a means of reducing it.