Putin and Decision-Making

What do Ukraine and Russia have to do with emergency management and homeland security — everything! Today it means nothing, but if and when Russia does invade, it will have significant ramifications for emergency management here in the United States. We could be plunged back into a Civil Defense 2.0 scenario. And it is not just Russia rattling its sabers, but also China over their claims to Taiwan and then there is another dictator in North Korea, firing missiles weekly.

Back to Russia and Putin. Dictators are unpredictable. You are not dealing with a group of people or legislators all arguing for one or another course of action. It is all in the head of one man. That was the mistake Europe made over Hitler. He saw appeasement as weakness and attacked Poland.

Is the threat of economic sanctions enough to deter Putin? I’m not so sure. He wants Russia to be the center of attention and perhaps that weighs more in his mind than any personal loss he might suffer from having his personal or cronies’ money that is hidden in property and other investments in the West affected. He can also retaliate by shutting off natural gas to Europe or with cyber attacks on our own critical infrastructure and business interests.

I do not believe that Putin will do anything while the Winter Olympics are in progress. It is a venue where Russian athletes perform well and, again, he wants that attention for the glory of Russia. However, you need firm frozen ground for armored vehicles to attack on — thus, if he is going to invade it will likely come shortly after the Olympics are over.

I’ll be doing a series of blog posts on these international situations in the coming days.