- As I understand it, the terrain is different. Around Kyiv there were many wooded areas where Ukrainian forces could hide and launch attacks on Russian forces. These are not present in this new offensive on the Eastern front — it is much more open terrain, well suited for armored force advances.
- The Russians have appointed a single field commander over all their forces in Ukraine. One of the principles of war is to have “unity of command.” That was certainly lacking for the Russians in the first phase of the conflict.
- The normal ratio you want is to have 3 to 1 when attacking, meaning you need three times the forces that the defenders have. Russia likely has that advantage.
- If it was an American attack, you would likely have an Army Corps with three division size units. Two division size units, of around 10,000-15,000 troops each, would be attacking and you would hold one division in reserve to exploit the attack when you have a breakthrough at some point along your axis of advance.
- The biggest danger to the Ukrainians is that there will be a breakthrough and an encirclement of their forces, cutting them off from their supplies. This would likely deprive them of their major combat power if the maneuver is successful.
- It is reported that the Russians have not solved all their logistics issues that plagued them previously. It is one thing to have a breakout — but then those forces need fuel, food and ammunition in order to continue to advance. Armored forces also need to be able to repair parts for their vehicles.
- Besides logistics, Russia had very poor operations security (OPSEC) by using unsecured communications. This would be unheard of in the United States Army of today. Will that have changed? I don’t know. One advantage is that the Ukrainians have lots of Russian speakers among their soldiers.
- They also had little to no coordinated air support of their ground operations. We’ll see if that is fixed. Air power can be devastating on the battlefield if properly applied.
- What the Russians will get is a nasty taste of American and other NATO country weaponry with anti-tank weapons and shoulder-fired air defense weapons that can take down attack helicopters and low flying jet aircraft.
- The Ukrainians have asked for long-range artillery that is being rushed to the combat zone, but likely not in time for this battle that has just commenced. Likely these are 155mm towed howitzers and ammunition.
- Why artillery? The majority of combat deaths are caused by “indirect fire” from artillery and mortars.
If CNN is right, the battle has been joined and we’ll know much more in the next few days if Russia has fixed their many operational issues. Given the short period between the battles, I’m thinking that they have not. Some of the issues they faced previously are likely systemic to how they are organized and their lack of training.
