Politically: I see the Winter Olympics as being a significant influence on when Russia could invade Ukraine. China is hosting the Winter Olympics and Putin is currying a close relationship with China. I don’t think he will do anything to detract from China being in the spotlight while the Olympics are playing in prime time around the world. The Olympics end on Feb. 20.
Militarily:
The terrain is always important to military operations. Defenders want to be holding the high ground, making the attackers come to them. Soil conditions are also very important to military operations. Bogs, swamps, etc. are not conducive to military operations, especially for wheeled and armored vehicles. Have that ground totally frozen and the equation can change rapidly. Frozen ground is ideal for armored vehicles.
The weather — even with advanced weapon systems and thermal imaging and other technological advances, the weather plays a key role in military operations. Especially the projection of air power. Pilots need to see their targets. In every military operations order, up front near the beginning of the document, the weather is described and its impacts to military operations discussed. After Feb. 20, the ground will not stay frozen forever.
Then there is logistics. To mount an attack you need supply depots full of ammunition, fuels and other supplies. You also need the logistics tail that is mobile in order to keep forward combat forces supplied. There are always some injuries in training, so medical resources are always present, but are they being sized for training accidents or combat?
This last category of logistics is the key one I’d be looking at. This is that what you need in the way of ammunition for training exercises and what you need for combat are vastly different. Especially artillery and rockets, something the Russians have always favored.
The Americans and the English are shouting from the rooftops that a Russian attack is imminent. Besides all the indicators above, they could have electronic intercepts of communications between the different levels of combat organizations. For instance, the movement of blood supplies forward is one of the indicators that has been in the press. Is this true? Electronic intelligence can reveal a great deal about an adversary’s intentions.
I’d remind everyone that the Russians are masters of disinformation, so they could be hinting and feinting different actions.
Lastly, Ukrainian leadership is trying to project calm to their population and is not echoing America’s alarm. Is that the right course of action? I’m reminded of one of Winston Churchill’s greatest speeches:
“We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
“We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the new world, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.”
What he did with the speech was galvanize his own people and also send a warning to the Germans and Hitler that it would not be a cake walk to take Britain by force. So far the Ukrainian president has not taken that course of action.
As of this writing, Feb. 20 is only seven days away.
