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Afghanistan Is En Route to a Catastrophic Civil War

The news can only cover so much of what is going on.

Think about everything that is going on in the world today: oil prices; Ukraine; China’s threat to Taiwan; North Korea firing missiles; threat of tactical nukes being used; rise of authoritarian parties in Europe; climate change; disasters, including Hurricane Ian; on and on.

See the item below. Likely not something you have ever seen in the current news cycle. But, as stated below, due to an impending famine in Afghanistan, I would agree is something that could very well happen.

We might moan and groan about no one paying attention to possible disasters in their future, as it relates to emergency management. Look at what we are competing for in people’s lives and news cycles.

The only thing I can share is that when a disaster does strike somewhere, use that opportunity to provide your own messaging.

Read below:

Dubai, United Arab Emirates, October 12, 2022 – In an exclusive interview for Arab News’ current affairs talk show, Frankly Speaking, a former Afghan National Security Advisor revealed that Afghanistan is on route to a catastrophic civil war – barely a year after the withdrawal of American troops.

On Sunday, Hamdullah Mohi, who served as the National Security Advisor of Afghanistan from 2018 until August 2021 when the Taliban seized control of the country, joined Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen to discuss the prospects of a looming civil strife and who is to blame for the dire situation in Afghanistan with over half of the population at risk of starvation this winter.

Speaking to Arab News, Mohi pointed out how the escalation of the world’s worst humanitarian crisis into an armed conflict seems inevitable – and could happen much sooner than experts have dared to suggest:

“Every passing day the Afghan people’s frustration is growing with the Taliban’s oppression…The Afghan people have seen many changes in regimes and know it can happen.”

“There will be mass mobilization in the country. It’s just a matter of when it will be.”, Mohi added.

“Some of those Taliban I know believe that the regime as it is, will not stand for long. Now where do we go from there – Do we take a path that will then go to a civil war once this regime collapses or a path in which there could be a government that is representative of the Afghans?” Mohi speculated during the Arab News interview.

The former National Security Advisor to the exiled Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, pointed out how the Taliban successfully fooled the international community:

“They used the Americans; they used all parties well in the negotiations. There was a global effort to create the space for the Taliban who had been the pariah for so long. They used that space and I think many countries were fooled by it.”

He also discussed America’s failed role in Afghanistan admitting how the US essentially signed the execution order for the former Afghan government:

“The United States, negotiating directly with the Taliban, excluding the Afghan government, meant the Taliban were not in the mood to make any kind of reconciliation at that point.”

Mohi argued that since last year’s takeover, the Taliban have dug their own grave by not following through their promises including respect for human rights, women’s rights and ‘amnesty for all’:

“The life of the Taliban’s regime is shortening by their own actions. They had a tremendous opportunity when they came to power to create an environment in which reconciliation could truly happen. And there was enough anticipation on the part of the international community, the world was watching, the Afghans were watching what the Taliban would do.”

Speaking about Taliban’s uncertain future to Arab News, Mohi was convinced that Afghanistan will soon witness a regime change which would likely shake the volatile region:

“All of the promises that they had delivered about change in their policies were seen to be reversed. So, with every passing day that window is shortening…we will see an end to the Taliban regime as it stands now, not too far away from now.”

To access the full interview, please visit https://www.arabnews.com/FranklySpeaking.

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About Arab News

Established in 1975, Arab News is the Middle East’s leading English language daily with a readership of over 10 million. In recent years, Arab News has gone through a major transformation becoming popular not only among the Arab World, but also reaching policy makers and business leaders globally. Due to its international reputation, Arab News is one of the primary sources in the Arab World to be quoted by US and UK media outlets and policy makers.

About Frankly Speaking

Frankly Speaking is Arab News’ flagship weekly current affairs talk show which digs deep into the insights of some of the most important policy makers and business leaders in the Middle East and worldwide. The show is managed by the executive producer, Arab News Editor-in-Chief, Faisal J. Abbas, and presented by an award-winning broadcast journalist Katie Jensen.

For more information, please visit https://www.arabnews.com.
Eric Holdeman is a contributing writer for Emergency Management magazine and is the former director of the King County, Wash., Office of Emergency Management.